There’s a lot of chatter about the real estate market. A lot of people are saying the housing recovery is moving full steam ahead. Then there are others who warn we’re getting into another housing bubble, which could end disastrously once again. Still others say — no, wait! — a housing slowdown is imminent. A lot remains to be seen, but some common talking points have emerged — and they aren’t necessarily true. Here are four myths about the real estate market that a lot of people buy into:

1. Real estate is still a great long-term investment. Sorry, but no. “In real terms (adjusted for inflation), house prices today are roughly where they’ve been since the 1950s, aside from a few booms that have come and gone,” said Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko. This chart based on the methodology used to calculate the Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows how close today’s home prices are to 1950s prices. You’ll also notice that, outside of minor ups and downs (and, of course, excluding the most recent housing boom and bust, which was pretty dramatic), home values have remained pretty steady over time. Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries points out that, historically, home values have appreciated at an average of 3 percent a year — that’s pretty slow growth. “Typically, housing is more stable, so you don’t make as much money over the long term,” Humphries said.

2. People are giving up on the suburbs. Widely reported statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau last year had us all thinking that, for the first time in decades, cities were growing faster than the suburbs. So wait, people don’t want to live in the suburbs anymore? Not so fast. The Washington Post found holes in the theory, noting that “urban cores are still much, much smaller than the suburbs, which means they can show higher growth rates even if they’re adding far fewer people in absolute terms.” Trulia did its own research, analyzing growth in “suburban” neighborhoods versus “urban” neighborhoods from September 2011 to September 2012 in the country’s 50 biggest metros. (The site based “suburban” and “urban” on neighborhood density and analyzed U.S. Postal Service data on how many occupied homes were receiving mail.) Trulia found that the suburbs grew much faster than urban centers, 0.73 percent to 0.35 percent, respectively.

3. We’re seeing a permanent shift to renting. That’s not what recent studies show. A recent survey by Prudential Real Estate found that 96 percent of American consumers consider homeownership important. Most young people want to own a home, too, with 77 percent of people between the ages of 25 and 44 saying that it’s “very important.” Trulia did its own survey, finding that 93 percent of Millennials who rent plan to buy a home in the future. Additionally, a January survey by homebuilding company PulteGroup showed that 6 in 10 renters who want to own a home plan to buy in the next two years. But …

4. Buying is again better than renting. It’s true that buying has become more affordable than renting in most U.S. metros — under certain circumstances. If you’re willing to stay put for a while — say, five years or more — then buying makes more sense in many places. But if you’re going to move after a year or two, don’t buy. “It really depends on where you live and your personal situation,” Humphries said. Zillow recently analyzed the “break-even horizon” for owning versus renting (how many years it takes before owning becomes more financially advantageous than renting), and it’s not all good news. Though in more than 75 percent of metros it would take three years or less to break even, Humphries said to consider the case of two California towns. In Mill Valley, just north of San Francisco, it takes 8.8 years to break even; in Menlo Park, where home prices are about the same, it takes 14.1 years to break even. Unless you know that you’ll live in a home for that long in those cities, stick to renting.

See also: Where Decrepit Homes Fetch Top Dollar, When They Have Mountain Views

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Commercial real estate continues to improve at a moderate pace, much in line with our previous forecast update from six months ago.

The office market enjoyed “11 consecutive quarters of occupancy growth and eight straight quarters of rent increases,” according to the Jones Lang LaSalle firm. The length of the expansion is more noticeable than the strength of the expansion. REIS Inc. reported national figures for office vacancy that are only slightly lower than a year ago. Jones Lang LaSalle also reported that most of the improvement is in Class A space, which confirms the anecdotes I’ve been hearing as I travel around the country: the only challenge for tenants is finding large contiguous Class A spaces in downtown areas. DeLoitte’s annual commercial real estate survey notes low construction levels in office space, which should bode well for landlords’ future occupancy and rent rates.

Before we get too overjoyed, note the limiting factors on the office rebound. First, the pace of economic growth is subdued, with a risk of recession large enough to demand concern. Second, high tech is a growing element of office occupancy. The software industry’s preference for putting many programmers in one large room cuts the square footage per worker. It may not be justified on productivity grounds, but the open workspace concept is so established in the software industry that it’s not going away any time soon.

Industrial space is starting to expand, with more new deliveries than in recent years. Industrial typically has the shortest development and construction periods and thus is the first sector to complete new projects when the market improves. This trait means that vacancy rates will not fall too far, nor will rents rise too fast. Still, increased volume of rented space will help the large landlords improve their efficiency, though it does little for owners of one or two properties who must compete in a market with growing supply.

Retail space is seeing more absorption than construction, but there’s plenty to worry about. Retail spending has only increased 4.4 percent in the past 12 months; a year ago we saw a 6.2 percent gain, and a year before that a 7.8 percent increase. Our recent figure is certainly an increase, but not terribly fast, especially in light of two percent inflation. Looking forward, the end of the temporary payroll tax cut will pinch a number of wallets.

On the positive side for property owners is the extremely low interest rate for commercial mortgages. Those owners who qualify pay so little interest that it’s almost free. Others, however, still have some difficulty obtaining cheap financing.

Investor interest has been strong, but the recent stock market surge may shift some money away from real estate into stocks. It’s certainly foolish to invest for the future based on recent gains or losses, but that is what many investors seem to do. In the coming year it’s unlikely that prices of commercial properties who show a strong upward trend. Light to moderate gains are likely, but price risk is greater on the downside than the upside.

For contractors itching to erect some buildings, the best opportunities last year were in multi-family residential. This year single family residential and industrial offer the best gains. Next year and in 2014, look for retail then office construction at the top of the leaderboard.

The greatest economic risk for commercial property owners is recession. The Wall Street Journal’s most recent survey of economic forecasters shows a 17 percent risk of recession. I am at 20 percent, but what’s a few percentage points among friends? The most likely trigger for a recession this year would be a worsening of Europe’s financial crisis. The Continent had been in a mild recession, then last quarter it turned decidedly ugly. If bond defaults or bank failures begin, the Europe’s economy would turn down, with ripple effects triggering an American recession. Most likely that will not happen, but nobody can be sure.

Given this risk, it may be better to sign a long-term lease at a low rental rate than to hold out for a premium rent in a year or two. Holding out for a better rent will probably work out—but probably is not the same as certainly.

BRUSSELS –  The European Union has approved state guarantees worth €18 billion ($24 billion) for an ailing French real estate bank on condition Paris presents a plan to restructure or close it within six months.

The EU Commission’s anti-trust regulator said Thursday the guarantee for Credit Immobilier de France is necessary to avoid major disruption in the French banking system as a whole.

It said the state guarantee is necessary to cover the real estate lender’s urgent liquidity needs and to give it time to draw up a restructuring or orderly resolution plan.

French authorities bailed out CIF after it ran into a funding crunch following rating downgrades last year.

Most major Web real estate sites list “location” and “price” as the two key home purchase decision factors, and sometimes add “quality of schools” as a third.

None of them list “real estate taxes” as a driving factor.

And a key study indicates that Westchester residential real estate shoppers, uniquely, care most about quality of schools, and very little, if at all, about property taxes, when weighing a purchase decision.

Speaking of Web real estate sites: Check those that provide data on real estate activity and you’ll find that in recent years Katonah-Lewisboro real estate has not underperformed compared to surrounding towns, contrary to constant claims in these parts.

Please, check the sites yourself.

It doesn’t make sense to equate K-L “per square foot” values with towns like Scarsdale and/or against a down-county weighted average, as the K-L Finance Committee did in its 2012 spring report. You may as well compare K-L p.s.f. to the east side of Manhattan.

But if you look at price trends, days on the market and inventory in recent years, you’ll find that K-L real estate moves in virtual lockstep with surrounding towns.

Of course, K-L isn’t a single real estate market. It’s a collection of zip code-defined markets, and performance varies somewhat from one zip code to another.

But review the secular performance of our zip codes and those of surrounding towns and you’ll find all of them perform about the same, especially if you start with 2007—just prior to the housing bubble bursting/Great Recession—and follow along thereafter.

As for the key study: In 2001, as part of an impact statement for a water treatment plant planned for Westchester, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) asked 10 leading Westchester real estate brokers to choose the top two home purchase decision factors.

Zero brokers chose real estate taxes as first or second most important.

Note that 2001 is the starting year of the 2012 Finance Committee data that some interpreted as forging a link between school taxes and real estate values, even though the data actually demonstrated no such link.

In the DEP study, “brokers who actively market residential property in Westchester County” were asked to rank eight parameters that might influence purchase decisions, including: “price-to-value ratio”; “geographic location” (how close to job centers); “quality of schools” (measured by factors like test scores, teachers’ salaries, percent of college-bound students); “amenities” (like parks and libraries); “proximity to commuter railroads and highways”; “real property/school taxes”; future “resale value”; and “general quality of the community.”

“Among these parameters,” the report states, “the quality of schools emerged as the predominant site selection…by far the most predominant issue…

“Real property and school taxes were not considered to be the most important or the second most important factor to homebuyers…Most of the brokers indicated that buyers who have selected Westchester County as a place to live typically come to a site anticipating that taxes would be high, higher than neighboring Putnam County and Connecticut…As a result, nearly all other factors are more important in selecting a home site.”

There is no data to indicate that Westchester home buyers have changed their outlook since then. In fact, a detailed and thoughtful (though slightly conservative-skewed) 2010 Westchester Magazine article on Westchester’s real estate taxes (bit.ly/12ZGken) noted that, “The formula ‘good schools equal high home prices’ might as well be tattooed on the forehead of every realtor in the County.”

A review of today’s online real estate bulletin boards shows that buyers looking into Westchester specifically discuss quality of schools as their primary concern.

BTW: The DEP report indicates that if teacher salaries are too low, buyers consider that a sign of weak schools.

The bottom line:

No matter how one characterizes the performance of K-L real estate, it’s part of Westchester County, where buyers look at quality of schools above all other factors, especially real estate taxes.

So as we examine ways to hold down K-L operating expenses—as indeed we must—let’s remember that if we care about our real estate values, it’s more important to preserve the excellence of our schools than to irrationally suppress our real estate tax rates.

Oh, and, isn’t our community also supposed to care about how our schools affect our kids’ futures?

WHAT: A three-bedroom house with three bathrooms

HOW MUCH: $710,000

SIZE: 2,261 square feet

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: $314.02

SETTING: This 1890s cottage is on a narrow residential block in an enclave of Uptown New Orleans characterized by colorful shotgun houses and late-period Victorians.

Magazine Street, one of Uptown’s main thoroughfares, is around the corner. Within a couple of blocks are supermarkets, banks, cafes, restaurants, salons and other shops. Ten blocks up Magazine Street is Audubon Park and the adjacent Audubon Zoo, covering over 340 acres. Within the park, there’s a 1.8-mile jogging path, lagoon, playgrounds and tennis courts, shaded by massive live oaks.

INDOORS: The house is a camelback, one story with a partial second floor. Most of its interior details, including millwork, crown molding, hardwood floors and fireplace mantels, are original. Ceilings on the first floor are more than 12 feet tall. Layout is side-hall, with a master bedroom suite at the house’s front end, followed by a living room with built-in bookcases, a kitchen and a formal dining room. The kitchen has a marble floor and appliances by Fisher Paykel, Miele and Sub-Zero. Two additional bedrooms are upstairs; they share a bathroom.

OUTDOOR SPACE: Off the back of the house is a brick patio, followed by a small arched bridge crossing over a fish pond to the backyard.

TAXES: $10,423.82 (estimated)

CONTACT: Mat Berenson, Latter Blum, (504) 232-1352; latter-blum.com

MADRID, N.M.

WHAT: A two-bedroom house in an old church, and a guesthouse

HOW MUCH: $699,000

SIZE: 2,377 square feet (total)

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: $294.07

SETTING: Madrid is a community of about 200 people in a narrow canyon of the Ortiz Mountains, 25 miles from Santa Fe. Miner’s cabins built in the mid-1800s are now residences, shops and art galleries; décor inside the Mine Shaft Tavern has barely changed since the late 1940s. This house is on a slope near the edge of town, overlooking Madrid’s main road.

INDOORS: The main house is in a single-story adobe structure built as a Catholic church around 1902 and converted to a residence in the early 1990s. Hardwood floors are original, as are the tin ceilings. The nave is now the living room, with built-in bookshelves along one wall and a wood-burning stove. The former choir loft, over the living room, is now an office. The altar was converted to one of the two bedrooms; the sacristy is now the kitchen. During renovations, a master bedroom was added off the living room, giving the house a cross shape. The master bedroom opens to a porch overlooking Madrid. Off the kitchen, there’s a greenhouse-like bathroom with a sloped glass ceiling, wall planters, a shower and a six-foot-long claw-foot tub. At night, the owner sometimes sits in the bath and watches the constellations.

The one-bedroom guesthouse, about 500 square feet, was built next to the church during renovations. Also on the property is a garage with an attached workshop and a small outbuilding fitted with a sauna.

OUTDOOR SPACE: The sloping lot is more than two acres in size. On one side of the house is a landscaped area irrigated by graywater from a system connected to the claw-foot tub and shower.

TAXES: $4,319.35 (estimated for 2012)

CONTACT: Bob Cardinale, Sotheby’s International Realty Santa Fe, (505) 577-8418; sothebyshomes.com

FOX POINT, WIS.

WHAT: A five-bedroom stone Tudor with three and a half bathrooms

HOW MUCH: $699,000

SIZE: 3,688 square feet

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: $189.53

SETTING: Fox Point is a residential village on Lake Michigan, 10 miles from Milwaukee. This house sits on a bluff overlooking the lake, in a part of town known as East of Lake Drive, where the village’s grid gives way to wooded, winding roads lined with prewar houses on acre-plus lots. The village has a handful of county landmarks, residential and municipal, including cast-iron street signs hung shortly after the village incorporated in the 1920s. For shopping, most residents go to Whitefish Bay; Milwaukee is also nearby. There’s a public beach five minutes away, in Doctors Park.

INDOORS: The two-story house was built in 1934. Four wood-burning fireplaces, wood-beam ceilings, and hardwood floors are believed to be original; other parts of the house — like the kitchen and bathrooms — were recently updated by the current owner. Off one side of the central foyer is a dining room with a cove ceiling; off the other is a living room with wood-beam ceilings and a fireplace. The dining room leads to a kitchen, which in turn leads to a family room via a hallway lined with built-in floor-to-ceiling bookcases. French doors in the family room open to the covered back patio.

The master bedroom suite is off the living room, and opens to the back patio. The other four bedrooms are upstairs. One has an en-suite bathroom. Downstairs, in the finished basement, is a recreation room with a fireplace and a mosaic-tile floor — also original details.

OUTDOOR SPACE: The lot is on over an acre and a half, with a patio, landscaped perennial gardens and mature trees.

TAXES: $20,139.26

CONTACT: Maureen Zander, the Katie Falk Team Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, (414) 617-6807; coldwellbankeronline.com